Brazil, Canada, the U.K., Kazakhstan, Ghana and Congo are also expected to contribute to higher output, as long-planned projects ramp up, the IEA said. Meanwhile, the agency projects production in China and Mexico will continue to decline due to investment cuts in exploration and development.
A key question is how much Russia, one of the world’s largest producers, will pump next year, according to the IEA.
Russia joined an OPEC-led effort to remove 1.8 million barrels a day from the market through March. Moscow has vowed to keep its output at 300,000 barrels a day below October levels, but the IEA warned Russian producers plan to sharply increase spending this year.
“While this forecast only includes a slight and gradual increase in Russian output next year, there may be a surprise to the upside again,” the IEA said.
OPEC, Russia and other exporters are currently capping output in a bid to drive global crude stockpiles down to the five-year average. On Wednesday, the IEA warned stocks might not fall to that level until close to the expiration of OPEC’s current deal in March.
“We have regularly counselled that patience is required on the part of those looking for the rebalancing of the oil market, and new data leads us to repeat the message in this Report,” the IEA said.
“‘Whatever it takes’ might be the mantra, but the current form of ‘whatever’ is not having as quick an impact as expected.”