The survey was conducted June 8 through 10, and includes 39 of the top U.S. money managers, investment strategists and professional economists.
The CNBC survey shows a change in attitude toward the stock market rally, which most respondents believe is based on fundamentals and corporate earnings. Sixty-three percent credit fundamentals for the gains, versus 18 percent in December. Just 29 percent say the market’s rise is based on Trump policies, down from 82 percent in December.
Less than half believe the market is too optimistic about upcoming policy changes, and 50 percent say the recent recent decline in interest rates has to do with lowered expectations for fiscal stimulus. But 45 percent said the decline in yields has to do with lowered inflation outlook and 37 percent said it has to do with a lowered growth outlook.
The view about economic growth is also changing, as the pessimism for implementation of Trump policies increased.The economy is now seen growing 2.45 percent in 2018, down from 2.75 percent when respondents answered the survey in January.
The respondents see geopolitical risk as the biggest threat to the economy, at 21 percent, followed by protectionism, at 17 percent. In January, protectionism was seen as the biggest risk.
Forty-nine percent of the respondents said they disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, and 27 percent approve. Fifty percent, however, say they approve of the job the president is doing handling the economy, with 26 percent disapproving.
Forty-seven percent said they do not believe the Russia investigation is a threat to Trump’s presidency, with 32 percent saying it could be and 21 percent unsure. A clear majority, 55 percent see the investigation reducing the chance of Trump’s economic policies becoming law.