Trump has repeatedly threatened to stop reimbursing the carriers for CSRs, so they have priced in increases of up to 20 percent to make up for the potential loss. In California, officials will allow insurers to add a 12.8 percent rate surcharge if the CSRs are stopped before or during the year.
Ignoring the individual mandate: 2.5 to 23 percent
Some insurers don’t see much of an impact on the enrollment, if the Trump administration stops enforcing the individual mandate to buy insurance. Others see weak enforcement as a small risk factor, but their calculations vary widely.
In Oregon, Moda Health priced in a 1.2 percent increase for the mandate, while rival Bridgespan added 11 percent to its request.
But in a few more balanced markets, like Providence, Rhode island, insurers don’t seem worried about it; unsubsidized premiums in Providence are actually set to drop 5 percent next year.
Health Insurance Tax: 3 percent
The Obamacare tax on private health insurance is set to return next year, after a one-year reprieve. That could add 3 percent to prices, but not just for exchange plans. The tax also impacts employer, Medicaid and Medicare Advantage health plans.
Medicare Advantage enrollees could see premiums increase by $245 for a individual, nearly $500 for a couple, according and an analysis by actuarial consulting firm Oliver Wymen.
Tax credits would go up too
The rate increases will hit the hardest those people who earn too much for subsidies. In Wilmington, Delaware a 40-year-old non-smoker could see premiums on a silver plan jump from $423 a month to $631, according to Kaiser researchers.
But more than 80 percent of exchange plan enrollees who qualify for premium tax credits likely won’t feel the impact of the price increases, because their credits are pegged to insurance prices.